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Post #1 Subject: Posted at: June 10 2026, 2:53:59 am

Angel6977 Donator Gender: Female


Rank: #7 Above Average
Posts: 137

when I went to school, 90% meant 9 out of 10. been getting hosp'd 1 of 2 times. lose one, win one. for most of the day.


Post #2 Subject: Posted at: June 10 2026, 5:41:02 am

Akuma Donator Gender: Female


Rank: #7 Above Average
Posts: 109

I don't get it


Post #3 Subject: Posted at: June 10 2026, 7:03:38 am

Armorking Donator Gender: Male


Rank: #8 Good
Posts: 241

u r talking about battle ladder im guessing? same story here.. sometimes i feel like its 40% chance, hahaha
Post #4 Subject: Posted at: June 10 2026, 2:24:30 pm

Nabeel Donator Gender: Male


Rank: #5 Rookie
Posts: 47

hide n seek too maybe?
Post #5 Subject: Posted at: June 10 2026, 4:05:47 pm

Angel6977 Donator Gender: Female


Rank: #7 Above Average
Posts: 137

pretty much both battle ladder and hide n seek


Post #6 Subject: Posted at: June 12 2026, 5:05:17 pm

sLeePyEd Donator Gender: Female


Rank: #4 Not Experienced
Posts: 16

As someone who dabble with statisitcs and data science for a bit of time, all i can say is... it is not impossible :p

Theoretically/Numerically,
There is a
18% chance of hitting 50% win in a 90% win rate game if you play 2 games... 4.86% if you played 4 games, 1.46% for 6 games, 0.15% if you played 10 games..... Up to this point i think it is still reasonably possible..

But if you hit 20 game (0.0006%) and 50 games (0.00000000009%), then maybe there is some issue with the code....


Post #7 Subject: Posted at: June 12 2026, 10:24:12 pm

Admin Chaos Donator Gender: Male Staff


Rank: #8 Good
Posts: 345

$chance = 90;
$rand = rand(1,100);

There is no meaningful statistical bias in the logic itself. If rand(1,100) produces each integer from 1 to 100 with equal probability, then:

Values 1–90 succeed 90 outcomes
Values 91–100 fail 10 outcomes

So the probability is exactly:

P(success)=90%

As with everything, averages can suck at times, and results in complaints when not in someone's favour and likewise nothing said when they are.

Members can use the statistics on either the Battle Ladder or Hide n Seek and work out the current success rate if they wish, there certainly isn't any massive drift say, resulting in a 50%+ failure.


Post #8 Subject: Posted at: June 13 2026, 12:49:41 am

Angel6977 Donator Gender: Female


Rank: #7 Above Average
Posts: 137

then why would I get two failures in a row? even had three failures in a row on the battle ladder.


Post #9 Subject: Posted at: June 13 2026, 9:20:31 pm

Admin Chaos Donator Gender: Male Staff


Rank: #8 Good
Posts: 345

Because odds don't have a memory.

Getting a success doesn't make a failure "due," and getting a failure doesn't make another failure less likely. Each roll is independent, so 2 or 3 failures in a row can happen naturally even when the stated odds are correct.

A 10% failure rate doesn't mean every block of 10 attempts contains exactly 1 failure and 9 successes. It means that over a very large number of attempts, about 10% will fail on average. In the short term, it's completely normal to see failures bunch together or appear farther apart than expected.


Post #10 Subject: Posted at: June 13 2026, 11:07:27 pm

Angel6977 Donator Gender: Female


Rank: #7 Above Average
Posts: 137

if there is a 10% chance of rain where I am....guess what???? it's gonna rain lol




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